BurmaNet Appropriate Information Technologies, Practical Strategies
November 2, 1998
Issue #1130
THE NATION: UN ENVOY HAS TALKS WITH JUNTA, SUU
KYI
31 October, 1998
AFP
UNITED Nations special envoy to Burma Alvaro de Soto arrived
yesterday in Bangkok after a visit to Rangoon, which was
described by the junta military government as "fruitful and
constructive". De Soto, who met with opposition leader Aung
San Suu Kyi and the head of the military junta, General Khin
Nyunt, during his four-day visit, declined to provide details on
talks.
"I met with Aung San Suu Kyi twice," he told reporters
at the VIP lounge of Bangkok International Airport.
He stayed overnight in Bangkok before flying to New York to
report his findings to UN Secretary-General Kofi Annan, who is
drafting resolutions on Burma to be presented before the UN
General Assembly in November. After meeting with Aung San
Suu Kyi, De Soto said by telephone from Rangoon, "I
deliberately do not grant interviews to reporters while I am
here." De Soto's visit came as Burma's human rights record
has been under increasing international scrutiny for its
treatment of Aung San Suu Kyi and her National League for
Democracy (NLD) party members.
The Nobel peace laureate led the NLD to an easy victory in the
1990 elections, but has never been allowed to form a government.
De Soto's visit included a meeting with the first secretary of
the ruling State Peace and Development Council, Lieutenant
General Khin Nyunt and Than Shwe, the council's chairman. Talks
were conducted in "a cordial atmosphere" and described
as "fruitful and constructive", an official statement
by the junta said yesterday.
Meanwhile, an NLD statement released on Thursday accused the
military intelligence organisation of using tactics to
"hoodwink" De Soto. De Soto also met with ambassadors
of Australia, Japan, the Philippines, the United States and
Britain, which form the core of a coordinated effort by concerned
countries to improve the dialogue between the NLD and the
government. During De Soto's visit, 15 NLD members were released
from detention on Thursday after what the junta described as an
"an exchange of views", an official statement said.
Their release brought the total number of opposition detainees
freed in recent weeks to 110. Hundreds more who have been
detained since May are still being kept in government "guest
houses". De-Soto said he had not met with any of the
NLD members in custody. The full details of his four-day visit,
which ended yesterday, are not expected to be made public until
he returns to New York to brief Annan.
THE NATION: SUU KYI TIRADE CONTINUES
1 November, 1998
AFP
RANGOON - The Burmese people have "vowed to crush all
traitorous elements", including opposition leader Aung San
Suu Kyi, the state-run press said yesterday.
"The masses are sounding calls for deportation of Suu Kyi
and punishment for the NLD [National League for Democracy] and
vowing to crush all traitorous elements endangering peace,"
the state controlled New Light of Myanmar wrote in an editorial.
"They must heed the voice of the people."
State propaganda from the military junta has repeatedly warned
that Nobel Prize laureate Aung San Suu Kyi could be deported if
she continued to defy restrictions on her freedoms of movement,
speech and association. The junta has been staging demonstrations
throughout the country in recent weeks, gathering state employees
to hear speakers repeat the military's anti-opposition tirades.
The latest was held in Bago on Friday.
Aung San Suu Kyi led the NLD to an easy victory in 1990
elections, but the military has refused to hand over power.
Hundreds of NLD members have been detained since May, when the
party set a deadline for the convention of Parliament. The junta
ignored the ultimatum and said attempts by MPs to form an
assembly were illegal. The junta's editorial yesterday repeated
claims that Aung San Suu Kyi was "conniving" with
foreign powers and news organisations.
ASIAWEEK: THE GENERAL VS. THE LADY
6 November, 1998 By Susan Berfield and Roger Mitton
/ Yangon
SO MUCH FOR RECONCILIATION. IN YANGON, NO ONE WANTS TO MOVE
FORWARD
MYANMAR IS STUCK. Three years ago the junta freed opposition
leader Aung San Suu Kyi from house arrest; since then the
positions of the government and the opposition have become only
more entrenched. Lt.-Gen. Khin Nyunt, one of the junta's most
important generals, and Suu Kyi seem unable to find any common
ground. Meanwhile, the military government has managed to
disappoint even the most forgiving businessmen with its
unpredictable economic policies. No one in a position to do
something about any of this seems to know what to do. Myanmar
faces a political stalemate, an economic reversal of fortune and
a leadership gap.
First the political deadlock. Suu Kyi's party, the National
League for Democracy (NLD), was supposed to take office after
decisively winning elections in 1990. That, of course, did not
happen. The military government that rules instead is supposed to
be transitional. But no one in power shows any signs of wanting
to relinquish it, and few generals can tolerate Suu Kyi's
challenges. When they decided she had become too provocative,
they cracked down. Government spokesman Lt.-Col. Hla Min
explains: "People are getting confused. We are a
transitional government trying to put the country on the
democratic path. We haven't reached that stage yet."
The junta would probably make more progress if it opened a
dialogue with the NLD. But the generals have said that Suu Kyi
cannot take part in such talks. That is not negotiable. The NLD
says she must be allowed to participate. That is not negotiable.
Stalemate. Both sides insist they are not setting conditions, but
in fact both have insisted on the one thing they know the other
cannot accept. Can talks be resumed? The junta must make the
first move. Hla Min says: "The door is still open, but we
would like it done the Asian way. The NLD uses the arm-twisting
method. They say: 'We're going to do this or else.' It makes us
more stubborn and will not work." In April, Suu Kyi
described the situation this way: "There is a great
propaganda effort to make us look inflexible. We have bent over
backwards to show that we are flexible."
Still, there is now a growing belief that neither side really
wants substantive talks - despite their pretenses. As a Western
diplomat in Yangon says: "You can make a very good case for
that." The regime is content with the status quo, believing
that time is on its side and that Suu Kyi's support is ebbing.
And the NLD is wary of negotiations that might lead to some form
of power-sharing, since that would confer legitimacy on the
regime. So the party stalls, hoping the junta gives way because
of infighting or under economic pressure. Neither seem likely
anytime soon.
Meanwhile, the junta constantly harasses the NLD. In 1996, Suu
Kyi's home on University Avenue was blocked off and her weekly
speeches to hundreds of people came to an end. Suu Kyi's party is
still able to hold well-attended daily meetings at its Yangon
headquarters - which would be impossible in Brunei, Vietnam or
Laos - but the military intelligence maintains a siege-like
atmosphere there. Asked if the regime aims to eliminate the NLD,
Hla Min says: "If we wanted to destroy them, we could have
done it a long time ago. We have been very tolerant - more than
in other countries with a military government. There, I think,
heads would be rolling."
It remains a tense and fearful situation for NLD members. Posted
by the entrance to the party headquarters are long lists of
detained supporters. Military men burst out to photograph and
question visitors. The party's vice chairman, Tin Oo, told
Asiaweek: "The man who rents these premises to us gets a lot
of trouble from the government." Suu Kyi attends the
afternoon meetings and gives daily speeches to rally her
supporters. Her movements in the city are relatively
unrestricted; she visits embassies, attends receptions and
earlier this month showed up at the Shwedagon Pagoda, where she
launched the democracy movement a decade ago. But Suu Kyi cannot
venture outside the capital. When she tried to meet supporters in
the provinces a few months ago, she was stopped by the military.
Twice, she refused to turn back and endured lengthy car sit-ins
that captured world headlines. During the second of these
ordeals, NLD Chairman Aung Shwe decided to accept an invitation
to speak with Khin Nyunt. At their meeting, Khin Nyunt agreed to
consider releasing detained NLD members. Says a diplomat:
"If that had been accepted, the dialogue could have moved
forward." It never did because the NLD then announced it
would convene a parliament (no assembly meets because the junta
is supposedly drawing up a new Constitution). Suu Kyi said in
July: "We are not provoking any sort of confrontation. We
are only asking for what is due, not to the NLD, but to the
people of Burma." Nonetheless, the NLD's decision, says the
diplomat, "cut the legs from under Khin Nyunt, and the
hardliners told him: That's it."
A round-up of the NLD ensued: More than 700 members have since
been obliged to remain at government guest houses until they
acknowledge the validity of the junta's position. About 95 have
done so and have been released. In September, Khin Nyunt said the
nation should be "alert to the danger posed by aliens who
are integrating in our internal affairs" using local
"lackeys." (Suu Kyi is married to a British academic.)
A month later, the regime gave the entire Yangon diplomatic corps
an unprecedented briefing. They brought out maps, documents,
photographs and money transfer receipts to show that Suu Kyi and
her cohorts had allegedly been conspiring with foreign forces -
including expatriate students, nongovernment organizations and
even George Soros - to bring down the military government. At the
same time, the domestic media stepped up their attacks on Suu
Kyi. The papers regularly carry cartoons depicting her as a
black-toothed witch manipulated by foreigners seeking to harm the
interests of the Myanmar people. There are dozens of stories
about rallies around the country where civil servants criticize
NLD leaders in front of huge crowds. In the most recent, some
20,000 people supposedly called on the government to deport Suu
Kyi. It is unlikely these staged events are very convincing.
"People are bussed in to hear these dirges," says a
diplomat. "They are angry at being forced to attend."
NONETHELESS, THE PARTY'S IMPACT has been lessened. Aside from the
ever-resilient Suu Kyi, other leaders have either opted out or
caved in. There appears to be no one else of substance among the
party hierarchy. Former leader Kyi Maung told Asiaweek he has
decided "not to make comments on political
developments." He adds: "I have been on furlough for
quite some time." Party Chairman Aung Shwe and Vice Chairman
Tin Oo say little, and do even less, without Suu Kyi's approval.
"It is hard to know where the NLD goes from here," says
one diplomat. Indeed, many wonder just what Suu Kyi's strategy
is. The government does not allow foreign journalists to speak to
her these days - and no one else in the party will speak for her.
Does the NLD hope the military will split and the regime crumble?
The apparent rift between the pragmatic Khin Nyunt and the
no-nonsense army boss Gen. Maung Aye may be just as staged as the
anti-NLD rallies. Many see them playing a rather canny good
cop-bad cop routine. Besides, says cabinet minister B.G. Maung
Maung: "They deal with problems together. Maung Aye is a
military man and Khin Nyunt is a politician who looks after the
development of the country." Still, those who know both
leaders confirm that they are not "the best of buddies"
and, since they keep to themselves, no one can be really sure if
they are working together or at cross-purposes.
Does the NLD hope the economy self-destructs and the people rise
up? Most observers regard that as highly unlikely. Says a
diplomat: "I don't sense it. Maybe in the future, but there
is no sign right now." Certainly the economic problems are
real enough though. Says a banker: "Since the end of 1995,
the government has not made a single decision on the economy.
Things have come to a standstill, just when so many important
things need to be decided." The impact of this inaction is
only now being felt and, of course, the Crisis is exacerbating
the situation. But the ministers insist the country is doing well
and that they enjoy popular support. "The overall economic
indicators are up over last year," says National Planning
Minister Soe Tha.
Still, inflation is rising, property prices are diving,
businesses are closing, foreign investors are leaving, hotels are
mothballing floors, and the national airline is in danger of
folding. One diplomat said that authorities were even having
trouble feeding the remaining NLD detainees and were forcing
restaurant owners to supply them with food. But perhaps the most
obvious manifestation of the troubled economy is the fact that
electricity is no longer something to be taken for granted in
urban areas, never mind rural ones. Except for privileged
enclaves, the entire capital is subject to power rationing.
Mandalay is worse - lengthy power outages occur daily. The
shortage has led to public frustration and a decline in
industrial output. Suu Kyi said in July: "The economic
situation is very bad and the education system is very bad.
Health care is poor. So what do we have left?"
What keeps the country going is the so-called unofficial economy:
the essentially unmonitored border trade with China, Thailand and
India. (Timber, legumes and gems go out; electrical appliances
and consumer goods come in.) At the same time, and despite Suu
Kyi's calls for a boycott, tourists are beginning to drift back.
And the rice harvest is better than last year's; some 50,000 tons
will be exported. But no one knows how long all of this can keep
the economy from failing and the junta in power. So where does
that leave things? Says a diplomat: "It's hard to see where
change will come from." The U.N. special envoy to Myanmar,
Alvaro de Soto, arrived in the capital Oct. 27. Most considered
this a positive sign since an earlier trip had been canceled at
the junta's request. De Soto was supposed to meet with Suu Kyi.
Meanwhile, leading diplomats in Yangon have submitted a
"reform initiative" to both sides to try to break the
deadlock. But there is little real optimism. Says one of the
proposal's architects: "It has become a matter of
personalities. Issues, policies, the national interest, the good
of the Myanmar people, they are secondary. For the leaders on
both sides it is personalities now, me against them. No
surrender." A deep and often bitter cynicism has taken over
in Myanmar.
REUTERS: RICE PRICES SET TO FALL IN 1999
- INDUSTRY SOURCES
30 October, 1998 By Anchalee Koetsawan
PHUKET, Thailand, Oct 30 (Reuters) - Myanmar's efforts to boost
its rice production in the hope of being able to become an
exporter again is being questioned by industry analysts. Myanmar
trade sources have said the military government has an ambitious
plan to export one million tonnes of rice for the 1999/2000
season (April-March) compared with around 200,000 tonnes targeted
for this season. Although the government has launched a series of
measures to stimulate output, they could all be scuttled by
excessive bureaucracy and regulations, the analysts attending an
Asian Rice Conference here told Reuters.
Myanmar was once a key world rice exporter.
Daphne Khin Swe Swe Aye, a U.S. Agriculture Department specialist
in Myanmar, had earlier told the conference that the government
was upgrading its rice industry by giving credits to farmers,
implementing advance paddy purchase systems and helping to
modernise rice mills. A major breakthrough was a government plan
to get the private sector to participate in farming, she said.
Under the plan, land would be leased to the private sector,
including foreign investors, for up to 20 years and investors
could export half of their production.
Currently, private sector participation in the rice industry is
concentrated in domestic trading and milling, as the export of
rice is monopolised by the government, she said. Private sector
participation is expected to bring in both technology and
improvement in infrastructure. But an executive with a European
company said many potential participants lacked expertise. Other
factors likely to undermine the government's scheme to boost the
farm sector were a lack of hard currency and obsolete
regulations, analysts said.
Foreign exchange shortages limited the government's ability to
import fertiliser or farm machinery, they added. In Myanmar, the
government owns all farmland and has provided long term leases to
tenants since 1965. Moreover, the government normally procures
paddy from farmers at well below market prices. Myanmar's 1998/99
paddy production is expected to reach 16 million tonnes.
ASIAWEEK: SKEWED REALITIES: FEW SEE
EYE-TO-EYE IN MYANMAR
6 November, 1998 By Roger Mitton/Yangon
Myanmar is full of embarrassing juxtapositions. One
evening, after sipping chilled white wine at a Yangon executive's
plush home on the shore of Inya Lake (where houses start at $1
million) we ride in his new BMW to see a just-completed
residence. It looks like the White House; its landscaped
gardens are lit up expectantly. Suddenly, the chauffeur
stops cowering by the hedge is a group of people apparently with
nowhere to go and nothing to eat. They gaze up at the car,
frightened. The executive tells man to drive away.
The moment passes, and soon my host is extolling how "this
county is really developing." And, in some ways, it
is. Cars were uncommon just a decade ago. Now the BMW
has to negotiate traffic jams as it passes spiffy hotels and
stores still bustling with customers. The executive
mentions a recent survey which found that pedicab drivers in
Mandalay can earn up to $30 a month. That's not bad
"and it's probably an under-estimate," he says.
Maybe. In Myanmar it is impossible to be sure of anything.
In Mandalay, however, I find that many pedicab drivers are short
of customers. Heading over to hire one, I meet a student
reading the government-run New Light of Myanmar. "I
like it for the foreign news," he says. "The
rest, I just look at the headlines. I never read
it." His chemistry studies came to a halt two years
ago when the universities were closed after student
protests. Now he ekes out a living as a shop assistant.
After our conversation, I direct the pedicab to Mandalay
University. A wide mall leads to an impressive, but
unfinished, building; behind it lies an empty and forlorn
scene. Under the soaring arches of the chemistry
department's marble hallway, dogs roam, nesting birds flitter and
vegetation creeps over barred windows. Peeking into a
professor's cobwebbed office, I spot a fading calendar, lecture
papers and books. Time stopped still. An education
ministry official later tells me: "We are not silencing the
students. The universities will reopen when we have
assurance they will not be used for political purposes."
Back in Yangon, a visit to the National League for Democracy
headquarters goes smoothly. The office is busy, and people
smile as they come and go. But when I leave, military
intelligence operatives, immigration officers and local police
cut off my car, take my photo and ask questions. Back at my
hotel, I get an anonymous call telling me to give up trying to
meet NLD officials. I persist -- but no one will
talk. When I mention this to a minister, he refuses to use
Aung San Suu Kyi's name; instead he calls her "someone who
crawled out from under a stone." It is very dispiriting to
hear this nastiness-- which, regrettably, comes from both
sides. While they trade insults, I wonder who is talking
about those people squatting in the dark.
ASIAWEEK: SURVIVAL OF THE FITTEST
6 November, 1998 By Roger Mitton/Yangon
AND, IN YANGON, THE BEST-CONNECTED
There are two ways to do business: cultivate officials or go it
alone. In Burma, a handful of men dominate the business
scene -- and all have close ties to the military
leadership. They are similar in other ways too: they are
usually of Chinese ancestry, have family members in key
management posts, own banks and develop property. And all
are suffering from the economic downturn. Says Khin Shwe,
head of the diversified Zaykabar Co.: "I'm just looking to
survive the next three years. If I do that, I'll take stock
and assess my situation." Banker and property magnate
Serge Pun concedes: "Business in Myanmar is not good at the
moment. We are in the doldrums."
Their woes contradict officialdom's rosy view. Top economy
minister Gen. David Abel says: "The economic slump in Asia
had little effect on Myanmar. In spite of a fall in foreign
investment, there was an 11% trade surplus." Maybe, but at
home the businessmen are hurting. Those with private banks
seem to be riding it out best, and three are dominant: Aik Htun
of Asia Wealth Bank, Serge Pun of Yoma Bank and Kyaw Win of
Mayflower Bank. Aik Htun's bank has Chinese backing, 17
branches (the busiest are along the Chinese border) and $100
million in kyat deposits. Says he: "We were the last
to get a banking license, but already we are the
biggest." Aik Htun and bank chairman Win Maung are
from Kokang, an area notorious for opium production; they deny
having anything to do with that trade, however. Aik Htun --
sharp, flamboyantly energetic (and usually accompanied by pretty
young women) -- also heads a trading and property concern called
Olympic Group. But he has postponed new construction
projects to concentrate on the bank.
The cigar-smoking Serge Pun is a more sober character. He
works from a penthouse at Yangon's 12-story FMI Center (which he
owns), overlooking the Shwedagon Pagoda. He is director of
Yoma Bank, claimed to be Burma's most profitable, with deposits
of about $34 million. Some regard him as the most
successful local businessman; others say rentals at his
properties may not match his expectations. A diplomat says:
"He is now struggling and has sold all his assets in Hong
Kong." But Pun claims that a recently completed
970-home project in metro Yangon is sold out. "It is
amazing how much cash there is around," he says.
Head of Mayflower Bank, Kyaw Win, is said to be close to army
head Gen. Maung Aye, Kyaw Win also has a construction business
and, like Pun, uses his bank to finance would-be property
buyers. Says a colleague: "Kyaw Win's bank is okay,
but in property he is not a success." Observers not
that while most of these new residential properties are paid for,
few are occupied. "Not 10% are lived in," says
another banker. "The oversupply is not rational."
Asked about these businessman, a diplomat says: "Hats off to
them. They continue to struggle against the odds, staying
alive." As Aik Htun aptly notes; "We cannot say
we are happy, but we have to be satisfied." That may
be more than many in Myanmar can claim these days.
THE BANGKOK POST: UN ENVOY PLEASE WITH
PLANS FOR KAREN REFUGEE RELOCATION
1 November, 1998
LOOKING INTO CASES AT FOUR OTHER CAMPS
United Nations emissary Alvaro de Soto is happy with preparations
for relocation of Karen refugees from border areas to a new camp
deeper inside Thailand. Region 3 staff officer, Maj Chamlong
Pothong, said yesterday in Tak province that Mr De Soto is
satisfied with the arrangements and is also looking into the
UNHCR taking charge of more than 57,000 refugees in four other
camps. Maj Chamlong said-security would first be provided by the
army and then handed over to the Interior Ministry and
territorial defence volunteers.
The new camp covering 800 rai is on deteriorated forest land near
Mae Sot-Umphang highway. It is expected to house 17,500 Karen in
two camps in Mae Sot and Phrop Phra districts. The proposed use
of the land is being considered by the Interior Ministry and the
Forestry Department.
Mr De Soto yesterday also inspected Mae La camp in Tha Song Yang
district. Meanwhile, the security force in Mae Hong Son is
closely monitoring the movement of Burmese minority rebels who
pose a threat to villagers near the border. A source said three
main rebel groups - the Wa, the Shan State Army, and the Muser -
are reportedly active around Doi Pak Kud in a mountain range
lying between Pang Ma Pa and Pai districts some 90km north of Mae
Hong Son city centre. The Muser force, a Mong Tai Army breakaway
group with about 200 armed men, was known to have crossed the
border to rob Thai villagers. Its men and the other rebels also
extort protection money from drug racketeers using Doi Pak Kud as
a transport channel. Samrerng Punapokorn, Mae Hong Son governor,
said apart from the minority armies, incursion from the Burmese
government troops also poses a problem.
The latest incident involving the rebels was the robbery of
rifles from local farmers. But Mr Samrerng assured the
authorities had swift measures to repel them. As with the Rangoon
army, the governor insisted compromise would be sought to prevent
future intrusions as well as to avert diplomatic friction. The
incursion often happened because of the unclear border
demarcation.